Live Blogging Hurricane Ike From The Woodlands, Texas

4:10 AM CST Going to try to sleep for a bit. Wind is whistling. Actually thought one of the kids was crying, but it’s the wind. Raining still. Still have power. Truly. Astounding. I didn’t think we’d still have it at this point, not that I’m complaining. Much of Houston is out of power by all accounts. Next update will be around 7:00 AM CST, or sooner, if I can’t sleep. And there’s a good chance of that. I am sitting here sans caffeine. I’ll pay tomorrow though. Wind is really beating up the trees. Branches are off. Just turned on the outside light. Yard is a mess. It will be delightful cleaning all this up.

3:40 AM CST By predictions below, right now, for the next 30 minutes will be the worst here. So far, I’d agree. Non-stop winds right now. Raining finally and that blue lightning. I’ve never seen anything like it. The wind is constant and then it gusts. After this half hour passes, I’m going to try to sleep for a bit. The worst should be over by 8:30 AM CST, for us in The Woodlands. Still have power and it hasn’t been surging like it was. Much of Houston has lost power, though.

3:15 AM CST High Tide hits at 3:23 AM. I thought I’d relink the Surge Data page. Holeee Cow. Check out Port Arthur and Clear Lake. Clear Lake is heavily populated. It’s going to be awful tomorrow morning.

Here in The Woodlands, there is heavy duty wind and the occasional blue lightning which is very strange.

3:00 AM CST I don’t know how much longer we’ll have power. The wind is incredible. Gusts are really something. My mom noted something interesting–maybe the reason we don’t have huge media coverage with big names is because they’re covering the “real” hurricane: Sarah Palin. Poor Alaska, being swamped by those guys. I’d almost rather have the gusty wind. The Big Media windbags are full of hot air and may not destroy your homes, but I’ve heard rumors that they suck your soul.

2:55 AM CST: Eric Berger is the other guy still blogging and still awake here. He has an update and says this (he has pictures):

The latest wind speed forecasts also suggest that most of Harris County, outside of the county’s southeastern quarter, may not see sustained hurricane-force winds as Ike moves inland and up the western edge of Galveston Bay. There will be hurricane-force gusts, of course, and these are already occurring in some areas.

Chambers and Liberty county have a much better chance of seeing sustained hurricane-force winds.

While hurricane-force gusts will be enough wind to knock power out to most of Houston — the total of those losing power is approaching 75 percent of all metro area customers — it shouldn’t be strong enough to substantially damage a significant number of inland homes.

The wind is worsening. The gusts are impressive. And by impressive, they would push me across the backyard if I was standing in it, just to give you an idea.

Right now, Galveston is experiencing high tide just as the back side of the eye wall hits. I fear for the people who stayed. The leaders just didn’t have enough urgency about this storm. Grrrrr…..

2:30 AM CST Winds are really picking up here in The Woodlands. Turned off the exterior lights, so don’t know if it’s finally raining. Where is the rain? This storm is so insanely weird. Huge, huge gusts right now. Yikes!!!! Haven’t lost power yet.

2:15 AM CST Wanna watch something funny while you’re riding out the storm? Sure you do.

1:36 AM CST Can’t sleep, live around Houston and want to add your information to the record? Go here. Twitter is an amazing tool, folks. People are reporting from all over the city. Tomorrow, it will be invaluable. Want to know where power lines are down? Want to know what’s open and not? Twitter will be your friend.

A note on technology: Between the internet and phone connection, it’s almost impossible to fathom going through this without the connections. Friends living in Poland and Australia have been emailing and IMing me. Family and friends all around the country keep in touch via text, IM, my blog and Twitter. It is amazing. In addition, Galveston was destroyed in the Great Hurricane of 1900–and the people were lost during that first devastating hurricane. The weather predictions this time have been so accurate. Lives have been saved–if the people listened.

1:00 AM CST Wind coming and going. John Little reporting that historic Brennan’s Restaurant burned to the ground. Dang! That was on my to-do list. John is also reporting this:

Fire between smith and brazos.HPD dispatcher just said “HFD is sending everything they got” not sure what that means but it sounds bad.

Okay, this is just nuts. One of my blog heroes, Jim Hoft, aka Gateway Pundit, linked to me. Do you know how many times I’ve linked this workhorse of a blogger? He is amazing. Thanks, Jim! You totally rock.

For the doofuses still in Galveston and thinking you’ve “escaped”. Um, hello, people! High tide is still coming and the storm surge is not done, yet. The worst comes on the back endfront of the storm. That starts two hours from now. The eye wall, back side, seems to be hitting Galveston, or beginning to at 2:00 AM CST.

Going to get a snack. Blood sugar crashing.

12:30 PM CST Hardly any rain. Weird. Still windy. Huge fire reported by FOX down town Houston. Not. Good. No way to stop it. Note to people: In case you’re considering it, don’t get in your car and go anywhere. The wind gusts will blow you off the road.

Here’s the tidal predictions at NOAA.

Brendan Loy is calling this “The Great Galveston Hurricane of 2008″. Catchy. He has more good information.

Here is the latest from my Exxon-Mobil insider. Please note: This is for The Woodlands, TX 77382:

Sustained winds

25+ mph already happening — duration: 19+ hours
39+ mph already happening — duration 14+ hours
58+ mph starting at 0034 CDT — duration: 8 hours, 35 min.
74+ mph starting at 0342 CDT — duration: 0 hours, 21 minutes

Gusts up to 116 mph at peak around 0400

Point of closest approach of center: 13/0700 CDT — 11 miles

12:20 PM CST From my mom via IM, “Do we really need to witness the last moments of Geraldo’s life. And where’s Anderson Cooper?” I’m howling. See where I get my smart ass sense of humor?

Via Twitter, the Hospital District is reporting flooding. During Tropical Storm Allison, they flooded badly and lost a lot of very important research being conducted in the labs. The hospital district has a vast underground tunnel network. Only Texas Children’s had flood protection doors built however many years ago that was. I’m hoping they’ve built more now.

Winds are Ka-razy now.

12:05 PM CST We have a huge, maybe 60 foot tall pine tree in the front yard. And then some other trees, too. Everyone in this planned community has tons of trees. It’s called The Woodlands for a reason. Tomorrow, there will be loads of downed trees and branches. If the clanging on my roof is any indication, there will be lots of new roofs needed, too. I’m trying to fathom the insurance bills from all this.

11:50 PM CST Disturbing pictures and more info here. Here’s the Twitter Disaster Watch Feed.

11:30 PM CST Just showered. Large scale exfoliation and smooth legs. I’m going into Ike smelling like a rose. Not sure I’ll come out of it the same. Sorry, for the pun. I’m getting tired and punchy.

Electricity browning out right now. Not sure how long I am for this blog. Watching Geraldo being blown into a palm tree. One of these days, a storm is going to suck him into the waves and he’ll be a goner. And will he have a huge wake? Okay, I’m sorry. That’s bad, too.

Strong gusts. John Little reports 600K without power. Might lose it here, too.

11:01 PM CST More at Texas Rainmaker who says “guess we picked the wrong hurricane to ride out.”

Here’s my thoughts as of now–Tomorrow and maybe the next day, people will try to get out because there won’t be power and it will be hot as hell, except that there won’t be anywhere to go. Misery. And there will be misery in shelters, too, of a different kind.

10:45 PM CST Michelle Malkin linked here. Thanks, Michelle. She and I met at the AFP Conference in Austin. Yes, she’s as nice in person as she is in writing. She has a good round-up.

Winds coming and going. Some people have asked because they have family here, where exactly, I am. I live in the Village of Panther Creek which is about four miles off of I-45. I’m near McCullough High School, for what it’s worth.

We have many friends and contacts within the oil industry and they feed me information every so often. I think people need to understand how profoundly the refining being down is going to affect the nation. Even if the refineries could get back going the minute the storm passes, it will take at least a week to get going again. And, it should be noted, the refineries will not get going the minute the storm passes. America needs to build more.

The Houston Chronicle is liveblogging and reports that Humble is under curfew.

10:30 CST The winds are BAD and it is nowhere near the worst time. The worst is supposed to be here (The Woodlands, Texas) at 5 AM. See below for the details.

More from LawHawk. He thinks it was a “huge mistake” that Bill White didn’t do a large scale evacuation. I 100% agree and have been saying so for two days. Scroll down for my own comment on the subject.

I don’t think I’ll be sleeping tonight.

10:16 PM CST There’s always a smartass. Watching the wind blowing Geraldo around on Fox. Hearing more huge branches come down. Shizen! Don’t like that. (Oh, huge gusts. 110 mph sustained winds on Galveston.)

Okay, here’s more info via Rorschach who also is here in Texas says about the 20% number I said earlier about refining:

eh, yes and no. yes you are correct but it is a little more complex than that. it takse an average of 3 days for refineries to shut down safely. and another week to come back on line. once a shutdown starts, you have to follow it through to full shutdown before you restart. so refineries that are in the cone of uncertainty at three days prior to landfall must make a decision to shutdown before they know where the storm is going to go. so all the refineries from corpus to NOLA shut down.

For what it’s worth, here’s Rorshach’s credentials:

full disclosure, a division of my company has an industrial nitrogen division which services the refineries to help “inert” the chemical reactors at the refineries. They have been busier than one armed paper hangers.

I hope they got the job done.

10:05 PM CST Structural damage to homes and businesses in Galveston, via FOX. HUGE wind gusts now in The Woodlands. Looking at the satellite, the eye of the storm is nice and firm. Horrible timing for Houston. The hurricane is strengthening as it hits land. Yikes.

Here are the economic consequences. Reports of $6.00/gallon gas in Tennessee. Just a reminder: 20% of refined oil comes from Houston. What happens here, affects the whole country.

9:45 PM CST Instalanched!!! Thanks for the link, Glenn. He says:

Watching TV a bit earlier, the Insta-Wife commented that politicians aren’t making a big deal about Ike the way they did about Gustav. That’s true.

I think everyone has been in la-la land. I’m wondering if it’s New Orleans bias or just political expedience. I think it might be the former because the government officials have been more relaxed in their demeanor, even here in Houston. It has been absolutely mind-boggling to me. This storm is huge and powerful and the Houston area has nearly 6 million residents. Only 1 million evacuated. The potential for loss of life is huge.

As of this writing, the wind is kicking up and much worse than we experienced during the entire Rita hurricane.

Waiting on the NHS to update. John Little is still going for now.

9:21 CST Brendan Loy angry about the 24,000 people likely still in Galveston. Yup. That’s what I’ve been saying. Wholly irresponsible. And I’m sorry, since taxpayer dollar go to saving them, if they’re even savable, they should be forced to leave.

9:12 CST Fox reporting a levee went in Louisiana flooding “hundreds” of homes.

9:02 CST Houblog estimates the numbers about who stayed behind and what it could mean:

Good Lord. That’s twice what I expected. [40% of residents stayed rather than evacuate.] If that proportion is the same for for zones A and B (areas that “never flood”)…

US Census: Galveston county popuation, 283,551, for both island and mainland. Clear lake is 65k. Power’s getting iffy again, can’t research more.

Toss in southern Harris county near the bay, Chambers county and so on, if that % holds true, there could be 300,000-500,000 people at risk.

Here’s a page Brendan Loy created about the surge problems.

8:38 CST Huge wind pick up. I’m thinking we’ll eventually have to bring the kiddos downstairs. Report of a fire on Galveston Island on the West end. There’s no way to get to them to see what is going on. Also, 200,000 without power via Centerpoint Energy. Back down to 105,000. That’s good. Flickering here.

At 9:00 CST Galveston shuts down. Police have been having to order people off the seawall. I do believe people have a suicidal impulse. What the heck? A whole psychological study could be done on people denying reality and willing to die rather than move out of fantasy land. Sheesh.

Also, dear reader Burnside sent me kind wishes and also this link, which I agree is the BEST storm tracking site I’ve seen: StormPulse.com

If one more talking head says HUNKER DOWN, I’m smashing some pumpkin heads. The phrase makes me feel violence. That’s it. I’m counting the times I hear it. Three times in the last minute.

8:16 PM CST Power just surged. Stink. Don’t want it to go this quickly. The wind is gusting. It’s dark, so I can’t see, but I can hear. The wind is steadily blowing now.

A commenter at Brendan Loy’s place explains what happened to Navarre Beach, an island similar to Galveston near Pensacola (I can personally attest to his report as I have been by there nearly every year, including the year of the hurricane):

In response to “how long will Galveston Island be down?” question you mentioned from Eric’s chat: During hurricane Opal Navarre Island and Pensacola Beach in FL endured a similar flood. Although they had no sea wall to protect from the frontal assault, the water and power infrastructure was completely wiped out – and I’ve recently heard on local Houston TV that the city/county officials expect Galveston’s infrastructure to be similarly destroyed. This is not a matter of simply stringing power lines back up – as will be necessary inland. Sewer and water lines will need to be completely re-laid (if possible). Parts of Navarre Island had no power and water restored for up to a year or more, and in many, many areas along the Gulf Coast there, the damage is still horribly present more than 10 years on. Channels scoured through the barrier islands are still barely above the high tide line. Highways, bridges and causeways that were ‘bulldozed’ by Opal (and later Ivan) took years to replace. It’s also important to note, as Dr. Masters does, that the seawall only protects against some amount of the frontal inland thrust of the water – when it begins to flow outward again the wall will not impede the rapid outflow of the same water. Hope and pray for the best but, in the worst case, the barrier islands in the path of greatest surge may be significantly altered for the foreseeable future.

As an aside, I am going to complain, again, about the evacuation. I think the fact that many people got stuck on I-45 for hours evacuating after Rita made officials nervous about doing a large-scale evacuation. I have said, and I’m saying it again: THEY MADE A MISTAKE. Let me tell you what is worse than having to pee on the side of the road because you’re stuck for a while: being stuck in a city that is flooded, with no electricity, not enough food and downed power lines. When everyone wakes up tomorrow, they are going to wish to high heaven they are anywhere but downtown Houston.

I hope I am wrong about all this. I want to be wrong. Time will tell.

Also, there is now a Tornado Watch on here. That’s unsurprising. What I don’t know, is how the difference between gusty winds and a tornado. We’ll see.

7:21 PM CST Just got the mail and got a nugget of goodness: Veranda Magazine. Did I tell you people that in addition to pop musack, I like shelter magazines? Well, I do. So, as long as I have electricity, I’ll be blogging, freezing (turned the A/C down in anticipation of the power going out), watching the news, and now, reading my magazine.

Oh, wanted to remind you. You can follow my tweets, which are short blurbs and blogs under 140 words. If the power goes, I will continue to tweet from my iPhone. So go here and sign up.

Big gusts of wind and a beautiful pink, puffy clouded sunset. Surreal.
7:00 PM CST Off to bed for the kids. I hope they sleep through the whole thing. I don’t have enough batteries, but I’ll use my iPhone as a flashlight, which I do all the time anyway. Hey, it works perfectly! Not too much blaring light. Just enough.

Wind is kicking up seriously, now. It is starting. No rain yet.

6:28 PM CSTI’m putting the updates at the top–contra-flow if you will. It will be easier to read, if you’re coming back. From Instapundit:

MORE ON IKE FROM BRENDAN LOY, who says a storm surge catastrophe is likely. Meanwhile in Knoxville we’ve got storm-generated gas shortages, but there are no lines. In fact, I drove by an Exxon station a little while ago that looked deserted, and I wondered if it was because they were out of gas. But no, they had gas — at $4.69 a gallon. Pricing signals work . . . .

I’m wondering about the contempt the coasts feel about refineries. You know, a damaged Texas coast will be damaging their pocketbooks shortly. I can’t say that I feel that sorry, except it affects my pocketbook too.

Right now the wind is gusty. This is only the beginning. To remind everyone:

Here’s the advisory for The Woodlands, Texas again:
Hurricane Ike Wind Profile for 77382
Issued: 1100 CDT 12 Sep, 2008
Wind profile graph
Expected First Onset and Duration of Sustained Winds
Wind Start Date / Time Duration End Date / Time
25+ mph 12/1126 CDT 30 hours, 15 minutes 13/1741 CDT
39+ mph 12/2029 CDT 17 hours, 32 minutes 13/1401 CDT
58+ mph 13/0058 CDT 8 hours, 36 minutes 13/0935 CDT

74+ mph 13/0401 CDT 0 hours, 54 minutes 13/0456 CDT
Point of Closest Approach of Center:
13/0800 CDT — 4 miles at Azimuth 262.0 degrees (SW)

The eye of the storm will pass 4 MILES from zip code 77382. I’m in zip code 77381 and the eye is predicted to pass directly over here.

Geraldo is reporting a family roped together on a roof down by the coast. I cannot even tell you how bad this pisses me off. He is rightly saying that, “the dark will mask the horror”. It was clearly doom. What is wrong with people? The arrogance and ignorance displayed here. And again, I’m not sure who is the bigger problem–the officials for letting people stay and not telling them to get out at gun point or the people for being so completely moronic.

6:09 [18:09 Military Time] p.m. here. There is cloud cover, no rain and lots of wind. The Hurricane will hit as a Category 3, not that it makes a difference. Unfortunately, people seem to be putting too much stock in the Category level rather than the damage that can be done because of the storm surge. The “worst case scenario” is happening in Galveston.

John Little is reporting looters on the Houston scanner–people taking equipment from a construction site. A pox on all their houses. These people are the lowest forms of scum. He is also reporting high winds and says that things are “deteriorating fast”. Follow his tweets at Twitter here.

Posted in America • Corrupted Culture • Not America • We're All Gonna Die
Tags: Houston • Texas • We're All Gonna Die