Hurricane Ike Already Overwhelming Galveston Island–UPDATING UNTIL I START LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT 6 CST
September 12, 2008 / 12:48 pm • By Dr. Melissa ClouthierLike I told you peeps before, I’m north of Houston. So far, sunshine and breeziness. Galveston succumbs to the surging gulf as I write this. (Here’s a link for the webcams.) Here is what an Exxon-Mobile insider wrote me (they have their own forecasting methods and they have to be accurate because of their rigs):
Now, the forecasters say to expect 25+ mph sustained winds beginning today @ 1403 CDT, and lasting for 27 hours, 8 minutes.
Of that time, we can expect 39+ mph sustained winds beginning at 1909 CDT, and lasting 17 hours, 32 minutes.
Also, of that time, we can expect 58+ mph sustained winds beginning late tonight @ 2308 CDT, and lasting for 9 hours, 26 minutes
This category is new — 74+ mph sustained winds beginning tomorrow early @ 0127 CDT, and lasting for 2 hours, 43 minutes
The expected highest sustained winds are forecasted to be about 81 mph., with gusts up to 118 mph.
Lastly, the eye of the storm is expected to pass within 20 miles of our zip code tomorrow morning @ 0600 CDT
Please note: This forecast is specifically for the zip code 77381. That is in The Woodlands, Texas. And that is as of an hour ago. So, it is constantly adjusting. As I learn more, I will share it.
The Woodlands and areas north of Houston will have to deal with wind damage and spin-off tornadoes.
Here is my concerns going forward:
1. Too many people. I am alarmed that more of Houston hasn’t evacuated and it’s not because of the storm itself, which will be bad enough. It’s because of the aftermath. Without power, people will be hot. Without power, people can’t cook. Without water, stores can’t be open. People will be stuck in their homes while crews try to clean up the mess.
2. Complacency. I noted this before. People just aren’t taking this storm seriously and I don’t get it. It’s massive. It is directly hitting the fourth largest city in the United States. New Orleans is the fraction of Houston’s size. So, the people left have been kinda lax. I hope they are well-provisioned. I’m not sure they’ve taken enough care.
3. Trauma fatigue. Houston has been in the helping position for a long time. Now, they’re going to need help. People are weary. I’ve said this before. But a lot of energy has been expended here over the past couple of years helping others in their time of need. People are worn out. This is not good. I include myself in this. A person cannot stay hyper alert forever. So, alarmingly, I’m still seeing Galveston residents finally waking up and leaving. Finally.
Far too many people are staying in low lying areas of Houston. What in the hell? People need to get out. They’re not doing it. They don’t want to drive. They don’t want to go anywhere. They’re tired. Well, I fear too many people are going to be dead tired before this is all over.
I don’t know if it’s the newsmedia or the city leadership or what, but there doesn’t seem to be enough urgency about this storm. I don’t get it. The media seems to be smitten with New Orleans and every other American city can just suffer, I guess. What the hell?
New Orleans has the historic French Quarter. That’s all well and good. Houston is full of people. Lots of them; nearly six million of them. In addition, Houston refines America’s oil. You know those distasteful things called refineries that Californians don’t want? Well, they get their gas from Texas. Everyone should be concerned about the safety of oil rigs and refineries. If they haven’t been, they will be soon.
Brendan Loy has a lot more. As the storm comes up, I’ll be live blogging it. Most of the night. Right now, I think I’m going to take nap, so I can stay up late. The wind is starting to blow and the sky is cloudy. Nothing big yet. The dogs are still outside and not freaking out. They usually go crazy when bad weather comes.
You can follow me at Twitter, too. I’ll update there. That’s easier. Short and sweet tweets! As long as I have power…….friends north of here have a generator. We might be visiting them if the power goes out!
UPDATED: My friend John Little is live blogging the hurricane from downtown Houston. You can also follow his tweets on Twitter here. He is about 20 miles closer to the coast than I am here.
More from Houblog who is in Houston and is boarded up:
No traffic out there. Great time to evacuate, people.
As one reporter pointed out last night, the storm surge is going to arrive tonight in the dark, after power has failed. And as I put it, your current opinion of the foolishness of evacuating is going to be pretty damned cold comfort, when you’re standing in chest deep water, trying to shove granny on the roof in 95mph winds (and waves). Hint: it ain’t happening. You’re toast.
Personally, I’d like to urge the folks in Zones Coastal and A who chose to remain behind to follow these instructions:
Instead of relying o n a “Good Samaritan” policy - the fantasy in New Orleans that everyone would take care of the neighbors - the Virginia rescue workers go door to door. If people resist the plea to leave, Mr. Judkins told The Daily Press in Newport News, rescue workers give them Magic Markers and ask them to write their Social Security numbers o n their body parts so they can be identified.
“It’s cold, but it’s effective,” Mr. Judkins explained.
I hear hammers. Someone else is boarding up. Not like I can look out my window to see who…
EVACUATE NOW! If you are in low lying areas of Houston, if you live in rickety homes anywhere, get out, now. The roads are clear sailing to anywhere you want to go and you can still beat the storm. There is no reason to go down with your house.
Ok, enough preaching. Time for sleeping. I’ll be back in a bit to update. Winds have died down again. It comes in gusts.
UPDATE:
Here’s the advisory for The Woodlands, Texas again:
Hurricane Ike Wind Profile for 77382
Issued: 1100 CDT 12 Sep, 2008
Wind profile graph
Expected First Onset and Duration of Sustained Winds
Wind Start Date / Time Duration End Date / Time
25+ mph 12/1126 CDT 30 hours, 15 minutes 13/1741 CDT
39+ mph 12/2029 CDT 17 hours, 32 minutes 13/1401 CDT
58+ mph 13/0058 CDT 8 hours, 36 minutes 13/0935 CDT
74+ mph 13/0401 CDT 0 hours, 54 minutes 13/0456 CDT
Point of Closest Approach of Center:
13/0800 CDT — 4 miles at Azimuth 262.0 degrees (SW)
The eye of the storm will pass 4 MILES from zip code 77382. I’m in zip code 77381 and the eye is predicted to pass directly over here.
There will be sustained winds of 74 mph for an hour tomorrow morning around 5 a.m. At this point, I’m just hoping the kids sleep through it.
My biggest concerns up here are two-fold: flying debris and branches breaking windows due to wind and no power. There’s a good chance we’ll be without power for a couple days. It is 95 degrees here. After the storm and no power, we’ll be in the car and visiting our friends (if they don’t flood) who have a generator. We’re not fair-weather friends. We’re bad weather friends!
Also, for the tools still holding out on Galveston. You do realize that when someone has to rescue your sorry ass you’re putting someone’s son, brother, friend, at risk, right? I just heard on Fox a Galveston commissioner staying on the island with her family. WTH? Downed power, fires, electrocution, there are many ways to die during this thing and drowning is not the least of them.
8 Responses to “Hurricane Ike Already Overwhelming Galveston Island–UPDATING UNTIL I START LIVE BLOGGING TONIGHT 6 CST”
By driver on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
Hope you stay safe, Dr. M.
I have cousins in Houston, with whom I spoke last night. They’ve boarded up, have lots of supplies, and are just waiting for the beach-retreat traffic to subside a bit before they skedaddle.
By Cousin Dave on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
Looks like all of the Galveston webcams are down now. I hope the seawall holds up. I looked at Weather Underground a few minutes ago and it appears that perhaps the eye is shifting a bit more north, so possibly a lucky break there for Galveston. Not so much for Port Arthur, though.
By Dr. Melissa Clouthier on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
Port Arthur is in a world of hurt, as is Galveston Bay. It’s just a matter of degrees for both. This is just not good.
By Charlie on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
This Galveston webcam seems to be working at the moment:
http://www.instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=GLVST&size=S
By Shreela on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
I rode out Alicia in the same neighborhood I’m riding out Ike in. It was pretty scary for me — I wanted to leave, but my mother was from an island that occasionally got hurricanes, and said no, it wasn’t a bad hurricane *for where we were*. We did not get water in our home (there’s a heckuva lot more buildings and homes now though).
But what I remember back then is about a week later, all sorts of service-industry people applying for jobs in bars and restaurants around our area and further north.
Turns out, they lost their jobs from flooded buildings. Some that my place hired said water got as high as 3-4 feet in buildings.
This hurricane has about the same strength winds, but apparently the surge is the same as a much stronger hurricane.
Turn off your power as soon as water comes into your home! Remember TS Allison when the boy tried to move his TV higher and got electrocuted, then his mother tried to save him and she was electrocuted as well. Also, a home in my neighborhood burned from an electrical short, because the owner wasn’t home to turn off the power. It caught the house next door on fire too. I waded to the other neighbor with my extinguisher (both my home, and my neighbor’s home had power turned off at the source — we lived here a long time). The firetruck almost flooded out on the way.
Also, beware of snakes, there’s been plenty of reports — two from neighbors I’ve known, of snakes in homes during floods. Also watch for floating fire ant islands, they climb anything fast, including legs. Then watch out for mosquitoes the next week when you don’t have power to keep the windows closed. I hope you bought plenty of spray.
I also remember Alicia’s food/water lines. Someone from my parent’s neighborhood rode their bike to the local mall just to see them. They reported back that lines were very long, and it was taking hours to get food and water. The lines were in direct sun, in August, with no power to cool them. My fridge/freezer is packed with water bottles, small and 2ltr, to build up thermal mass, as well as providing cool potable water as food thaws (heck, I need to put in the oven thermometer, oops). I also have quite a few gallon glass jugs filled with water, and will fill the bathtub for washing water so I won’t have to use as much potable. We’ll be covering the fridge with many blankets once the power shuts off. Hopefully between the thermal packing and insulation, I’ll get 3-4 days worth of freezer foods before they go bad.
Then I have a few cases of canned food. I hate canned food, but I always buy canned at the beginning of hurricane season, then eat here and there after September. We’ll be eating them a bit sooner this year, thanks to Ike.
Campstove has 2 cans fuel, plenty of candles and kerosene for our lanterns. I save wax chips from candles to make tin can burners. We only have one bag of charcoal though. I’m not in the mandatory flood zone; I hope those that are but stayed prepped much better than I did.
By vj on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
Melissa, if you have not heard this yet: just found out from a police officer that he had information that we should expect to be without power for 4-5 days.
By Shreela on Sep 12, 2008 | Reply
Oh BTW, I’ll be doing some Ike-Tweeting too. I’m using PC browser until power goes out, or water gets up to porch so we turn power off. Then I’ll switch to phone, if it goes through (I tested txt’ing to twitter, so it’s setup, it’s just a matter of if towers hold up, and how much the networks get jammed).
http://twitter.com/Shreela
By H Patel on Sep 13, 2008 | Reply
Just to thank you Dr. M. I have been updated very well and I have an interest in The Woodlands (my house) and I am here in SE Asia.