Ike Cometh–Houston, Texas Beware

Woodlands, Texas residents are shopping, filling their cars, rumo has it that the schools (CISD Closed 9/12) will be closed [here's the list of closings] tomorrow and traffic is at a stand-still on 242 and I-45. Already. HEB Central Market parked a generator as of 8:30 this morning out back. Lines snake out of every gas station that I passed. People sport the business-like intensity that I’ve come to recognize after a couple storms.

Ike looks like he might be coming “down the pipe”. What that means is that Galveston and then Houston could be in the direct path of a Cat 4 hurricane (if it bumps slightly up).

People are storm weary here and so preparations have been last minute. I think many people, if they were like me, hoped that if they wanted it bad enough, Ike would stay south. Well, that’s not happening. Now the business of putting away stuff that can go airborne, filling propane tanks, making sure there’s enough water, falls to today and everyone is doing the same thing at the same time.

What will happen:

There will be lots of rain. Downtown will flood. Tropical storm Allison came over the area, parked and was exceedingly destructive. Low-lying areas around will flood again.

Trees will go down. You can stay in town, but you might be stuck. This happened to friends. Two huge trees got uprooted during Hurricane Rita and while they had food, gas and provisions, they couldn’t go anywhere because huge trees blocked the streets. Wind will be the major problem where I live That and any tornadoes that spin off. Below is the most concerning graphic for those of us off the coastal areas: wind. We will get over 100 mph winds, if forecasts are right. If you haven’t been in winds that strong, let me assure you, it’s scary shit. Winds at 80 mph are no picnic, either.

Power will go out. Likely, there will be rolling blackouts. The places hardest hit won’t have electricity at all. Some for weeks. I cannot adequately convey how bad that sucks when the temperature is 95 degrees. I just want to note here that people in parts of Baton Rouge STILL do not have electricity after the hurricane a week and a half ago. Misery and stink set in quickly.

People will run out of perishables. I know. You think, I need lots of canned goods and you do. But with rolling blackouts, your fridge’s contents won’t go all bad (have water bottles frozen–you’ll have water and it will keep the fridge cold) and two days into everything, you’re looking at your kids and thinking. Shizen! I want to make them something hot. Like I said, too, don’t assume you won’t have someone who needs your help. You’ll go through food quicker.

After the storm, it will be eerie. No noise. No cars. No people. You’ll be aware, suddenly, of how many people left. Likely, way more people than you thought. So, what occurs to you is, Crap! It’s just me and the criminals. Houston police did a great job during the last storm by all accounts. There was no looting or nefarious behavior. So, that’s good, but Rita was not a direct hit, either. Ike is coming more directly at us and Houston is on the “bad” side of the storm, as of now.

Anyway, it has already begun. I’ll keep you updated. Galveston Island, Brazoria County, and parts of Harris County along the coast are evacuating right now.

Also, Brendan Loy says this:

Regardless of our slight disagreement on that issue, Sullivan makes a couple of other really good points. For one, he writes, “I do think [the double eyewall weirdness] may induce exceptional tornado risk when [Ike] moves inland and begins to disintegrate.” In comments here, he emphasizes this point again: “I think it is time to start talking about tornadoes. That odd core structure could be a killer, at a considerable distance inland.”

Also:

The effects of Ike may not be that concentrated, but they will be very widespread. With the prolonged run of onshore winds on northeast Texas coast, several tidal cycles may back up into the marshlands, just as floodwaters from inland rains try to head seaward. This could result in a prolonged and dramatic immersion of low-lying areas, compounded by wind-driven waves.

Sticking with the storm surge theme, “Ubu Roi” at Houblog makes another good point: “That wide wind field may be keeping the current velocity low, but it also is allowing Ike to build up one hell of a dome of water to ride atop.” Indeed.

In other words, even if Sullivan is right that Ike will never escape its current Category 2 limbo, this hurricane is still going to be a pretty big deal. (And if it does finally “tighten” into a Cat. 3/4, it’ll be an even bigger deal, obviously. In Ubu’s words: “If it tightens up, and the wind speeds up in the next 24-36 hours, it would be even worse than if it were tight now.”)

Here’s what makes me nervous: there has been an odd reticence (myself included) to get hyped up about this storm. There have been so many that have been screeched about in breathless detail that it is easy to get complacent. I think Houstonians may be being complacent about this storm. And there are a lot of Houstonians. Five million people stuck is a hell of a lot of people.

UPDATE:

More from Brendan–

In other words, the best case scenario is that Ike continues to confound expectations, remains a surface-level Category 1 hurricane (which it effectively is right now), and hits Texas with a storm surge of the sort that might ordinarily be generated by a Cat 4-5. Or, to be more precise, without the narrow peak a Cat 4-5 would generate just east of its eye, but with an even broader swath of serious flooding. The worst case scenario is that Ike confounds expectations by tying together its upper and lower circulation, its eyewall gets replaced, and it suddenly strengthens into a truly major hurricane – bringing incredibly destructive winds on top of the storm surge.

Listening to the emergency responders in the Houston metro area, I’m struck that they’re largely focused on the potential for the worst-case scenario. That is, they seem to be worried about shifts in the track and the strength of the winds. It’s now virtually certain that Galveston island will be flooded from the bay-side; and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the surge will exceed the height of the floodwall, too. You’d think that, after Katrina, they might have figured out that the intensity at landfall matters a whole heck of a lot less than the width of the field and the resultant surge. Perhaps Ike will make them pay attention to the IKE.

I’m still concerned. There aren’t enough people leaving from Houston. During Rita, which came on the heels of Katrina, people were gone by this time. Now, the roads aren’t even that busy. What the heck? It seems like some were caught unaware, or just don’t care.

Posted in We're All Gonna Die
Tags: Houston • Texas • Weather